"Could you help us recognize a pattern for successful shearing?"
I'll do my best, but there are others who could do much better explaining this...
First, my glider was set up [another blatant jab at Diev
]. The conditions appeared blown out as early as 9AM Sunday morning. By noon the wind had turned light and more from the south. So the wind direction was switchy that day and velocities varied. There were medium-sized white caps, though, from the bowl on up north as far as the eye could see.
Something appeared to be rolling in. The wind sock was reading SSW by about 2PM, but upper layer winds and cloud wisps were NW, so there was some mixing going on.
Then the wind sock slowly started inching its way W and WNW matching more the upper layer winds. A couple pilots started suiting up and I soon followed...a NW shear was upon us as the velocity picked up, too.
"On what did you base your decision when to launch?"
What convinced me it was time to launch was the matching of the lower level wind (the wind sock) with the upper level winds (the upper layer wisps of clouds from the NW). Rather than being at 90 degrees to one another, they were now in-sync with each other, but along with that came the increase in wind velocity. It was time to launch before it became too strong...Also, the birds were specking out at the north end above the bunkers and not getting jostled about...
Right after launch, it was a bit of a rodeo ride to the north end, but once we reached the bunkers the elevator ride became apparent...it was going to be a good day. Almost all of the pilots who launched stayed near the north end working the lift / elevator ride. That appeared to be the sweet spot. I think I was about the 3rd pilot in the air with a total of about 1/2 dozen others...maybe a couple more.
After about 45 minutes, I felt the air cool off considerably and the velocity picked up quite a bit. The air became less smooth and more "textured". The "sweet spot" of ultra smooth air seemed to be disappearing. I noticed a couple people landing and could see the wind sock whipping around much more than before.
The winds were WNW while landing and strong, maybe in the high 20's or thereabout. I let myself drift pretty deep, almost over the road that runs by the clubhouse while landing. Personally, I like to be far back from the setup area in these conditions and planted my glider well enough back to not incur any rotor...
This is my take on the shear conditions on July 1st, 2007. Each shear has its own characteristics and can deliver goodness or misery in a moments notice...
Chris